Population and Economics Update
U.S. Census Bureau Recently Released Data Confirm NVRC's Population Growth Projections
NVRC’s Senior Regional Demographer has updated data related to population growth based upon recently released information from the U.S. Census Bureau. The data confirms the projections of our demographer that were released in February 2024.
Demographics
The Northern Virginia region’s 2023 population estimate of 2,556,143 was released on March 14th by the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the first time the region’s population has surpassed its pre-pandemic population. From July 2020 to July 2021, during the first year of the pandemic, a temporary population decline occurred. This temporary decline was the first and only annual decline since the Census Bureau annual record keeping began in 1970.
A population rebound has occurred, with the drivers spelled out in an NVRC report on Population Change first published in February 2024 and now updated this April with the newly released 2023 population estimates and components of change from the U.S. Census Bureau, the authoritative source for such data.
NVRC’s Senior Regional Demographer published 2022 to 2023 population change projections in the February 2024 version of the Population Change report. The methodology utilized national birth, death, and international migration data trends through 2023, along with regional birth, death, domestic migration, and international data trends. The population was projected to rebound by 6,700 from 2022 to 2023. This projection was in line with the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center, which estimated a similar amount of change in the region, 7,500. The Census Bureau’s newly released estimates, considered the authoritative source, indicate an even higher than anticipated population growth from 2022 to 2023 for the region, with it estimated at 9,700. As it turns out, the number of people moving out of the region was less than the first two years of the pandemic, but it continued to be significantly higher than pre-pandemics times. This lesser amount of out-migration led to a greater increase in the region’s population than anticipated.
Natural change (births minus deaths) and international migration represent the primary drivers of regional growth in Northern Virginia for several decades, and the only drivers of population growth since 2013. Population growth in the USA and the region for the next decades will be dependent on international migration. Without international migration, the U.S. population would decline for many decades, starting in 2030 because of an aging population and a decline in births, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 National Population Projections.
Beginning in early 2020 with the COVID-19 pandemic, national and regional demographic trends shifted substantially. Notably, domestic migration trends shifted because of the substantial rise in remote work. Remote work will likely shape the region’s future demographic trends well into the future, particularly because it provides the opportunity for people to move to lower cost of living areas. Expect slower growth in Northern Virginia because of high cost of living. Reverting to pre-pandemic trends of high growth as seen before 2017 is not a viable outlook.
Without lower cost of living and a significant increase in affordable housing for low- and middle-income classes, Northern Virginia’s negative net domestic migration may continue at elevated rates.
Economics
The current and future labor force of Northern Virginia is highly dependent on the current and future demographics that shape our region. A shortage of workers in the region will likely continue for many years without balancing population and employment, without more affordable housing for attracting young-adult workers, and because of the baby boomer generation retirement wave.
The aging population of the region and nation is leading to a retirement wave.
In 2010, the region’s age 55 to 64 and 65 or older population shares were 10.9% and 8.7% respectively, compared to 2022’s shares of 11.8% and 13.1% respectively. The region has experienced a downward trend in its labor force over the last half-year that is largely attributed to retirements, as inferred from lower labor force participation rates nationally in these age groups, a low unemployment rate of 2.5% that has changed little over the past year, and low but steady initial unemployment claims. The retirement wave will continue over the next few years. In 2029 is when the last of the baby boomer generation will reach age 65.
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About the Northern Virginia Regional Commission
NVRC is a consortium of thirteen local governments representing more than 2.5 million residents. While only 3% of Virginia's land mass, Northern Virginia has a GDP of $276 Billion which is 41.6% of the GDP of the Commonwealth of Virginia. Northern Virginia’s GDP is larger than 24 states and the District of Columbia and if a country would be the 48th largest economy in the world.